On January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump moved to withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement for a second time. This decision sent ripples through the global community, reaffirming the U.S.'s stance on prioritizing domestic industries over international climate commitments. The Paris Agreement, designed to limit global warming and mitigate the worst impacts of climate change, was a key instrument for global cooperation in the fight against the climate crisis. Trump's withdrawal not only affects U.S. climate policy but also has profound implications for global emissions trajectories, particularly in relation to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, which model the potential outcomes of various climate futures.
In this article, we explore how Trump's second exit from the Paris Agreement will influence the RCP climate scenarios, specifically the potential end-of-century outcomes. By examining the ramifications of this political decision, we can better understand the challenges that lie ahead in managing climate risks. Additionally, platforms like Refinq provide essential data-driven insights to help businesses navigate these shifting climate scenarios and align their strategies with long-term sustainability goals.
The Paris Climate Agreement, which was adopted in 2015, aimed to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C, with efforts to keep it below 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. This ambitious accord brought together nations worldwide to commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and investing in sustainable solutions to combat the effects of climate change. It has been considered a landmark agreement in the fight against the climate crisis.
Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement in 2017—followed by his recent confirmation of withdrawal in 2025—was framed as a move to protect American industries from what he called the "unfair one-sided Paris climate accord rip-off." This exit undermines the collective global effort to mitigate climate change, as the U.S. is the world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases. The ripple effect of this decision extends far beyond U.S. borders, influencing global emission trajectories and impacting international climate cooperation.
The consequences of Trump’s Paris exit will be felt most acutely in terms of RCP scenarios, which provide a framework for understanding the possible climate outcomes under different levels of greenhouse gas concentrations. Refinq helps organizations forecast potential climate risks based on these RCP scenarios, enabling them to prepare for a range of environmental outcomes and adapt their strategies accordingly.
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are emission scenarios used by climate scientists to model the potential impacts of different levels of greenhouse gas emissions on the global climate. There are four primary RCPs, each representing different levels of emissions and the resulting temperature rise by the end of the century. These pathways are:
The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement signals that emissions reduction commitments may not be met, particularly in the short term. This could steer the world toward the higher emissions pathways, such as RCP 6.0 or even RCP 8.5, where the impacts of climate change, including extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and rising sea levels, become more severe.
Refinq offers predictive models based on RCP scenarios to help businesses assess the environmental risks of various emissions pathways. Through machine learning and geospatial analysis, Refinq provides actionable insights that help organizations navigate the complex and evolving landscape of climate risks.
Trump’s exit from the Paris Agreement is expected to have a direct influence on U.S. emissions trajectories. During his first term, Trump rolled back numerous environmental regulations, including restrictions on coal-fired power plants and oil drilling. His second term, as indicated by his rhetoric and executive actions, is likely to push for further fossil fuel expansion, potentially leading to an increase in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
One of the most concerning implications of this decision is its potential to push the world toward higher RCP scenarios, especially RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5. These scenarios are associated with limited mitigation efforts and continued high emissions, leading to greater global temperature rise and more extreme climate impacts. With Trump’s policies likely to delay or derail progress toward emission reduction goals, the world may see an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events, sea level rise, and disruptions to ecosystems.
In this context, companies and governments need to understand the long-term implications of these emissions pathways and take proactive steps to mitigate risks. Tools like Refinq can help businesses identify and assess their exposure to climate risks under different RCP scenarios, allowing them to adapt their strategies for future climate challenges.
The long-term impact of Trump’s Paris exit is not just an immediate concern for emissions but also for the global temperature rise and environmental conditions by the end of the century. If the U.S. continues on a high-emissions trajectory under Trump’s policies, the global temperature rise could exceed 3°C, moving the world closer to RCP 6.0 or even RCP 8.5 scenarios.
These higher-emissions scenarios are associated with several severe consequences:
Refinq can help businesses assess the potential impacts of these scenarios on biodiversity, providing valuable insights into how climate risks may affect ecosystems and operations. Understanding these impacts is crucial for developing long-term resilience strategies that safeguard both business operations and the natural environment.
As the global climate trajectory shifts toward higher emissions scenarios, it is critical for businesses to adapt and build resilience. This requires proactive planning and investments in sustainability practices that mitigate the risks associated with a hotter planet.
By using predictive tools like Refinq to model future emissions pathways, businesses can identify areas where they are most vulnerable to climate change and take steps to mitigate risks.
Trump’s second exit from the Paris Climate Agreement marks a significant turning point in U.S. climate policy and its impact on global emissions trajectories. As the world faces increasing climate risks, understanding the implications of RCP scenarios is crucial for businesses, governments, and individuals alike. With tools like Refinq, organizations can assess climate risks, adapt to future scenarios, and take proactive steps to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Despite the political shifts, the need for global climate action remains urgent, and businesses must prepare for the future by building resilience to ensure long-term sustainability.